Central theme: Seizing the Opportunities of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Accelerate Africa’s Emergence

Location: Abidjan
Proposed dates: 16-17 November 2021/23-24 November 2021
Mode: Hybrid – in-person and virtual

    I.               Introduction

At the initiative of His Excellency Mr. Alassane OUATTARA, President of the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and in collaboration with the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB), a platform for dialogue on the emergence of the African countries, the International Conference on the Emergence of Africa (ICEA), was launched in 2015.

The general objective of the ICEA is to stimulate debate and exchange of experiences on the issue of and conditions for the emergence of African countries in light of the processes of economic and social transformation in emerging countries (including China, Brazil, India, Turkey, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea) as well as in certain African countries. The specific objectives of the ICEA are to: (i) improve the understanding of the issues and conditions for emergence; (ii) identify the operational policies that can accelerate the structural transformation of African economies with a view toward integrated emergence that generates productive and decent jobs, promotes human development and is environmentally sound; and, (iii) promote tools and methods for analysis, planning and assessment of Africa’s trajectory of emergence.

The first ICEA conference (ICEA-1) was held from 18-20 March 2015 in Abidjan. It functioned as a laboratory to analyse and share good practices on pooling knowledge about the conditions for Africa’s emergence. It focused on the role of the developmentalist state in promoting changes in the modes of production and consumption, as well as the conditions of sustainable human development derived from equity-based social policies. Its Declaration presented an outline of the emergence model that the continent has chosen, considering its unique characteristics.

The second edition of the ICEA (ICEA-II) was held from 28-30 March 2017 in Abidjan. It focused on the challenges of implementing plans for emergence in Africa. Addressing these challenges requires - at all levels, starting with the State and the public administrations – key competencies, rigour, organization and mobilization of the necessary financing.

CIEA-III was held from 17-19 January 2019 in Dakar, Senegal. It addressed private sector development and developing national champions to drive the emergence of African economies. In addition to this central issue, the conference also addressed the ways in which the private sector can contribute to inclusion and enhance the territories’ economic opportunities within a framework of productive public-private partnerships.

The first three editions of the International Conference on the Emergence of Africa were highly successful. They were enhanced by the participation of several Heads of State and Government, as well as Special Government Representatives (including from Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, Liberia, Guinea, Malaysia, Mali and the People’s Republic of China), managers of international development institutions (specifically, UNDP, the World Bank and the African Development Bank) and ministers from Africa and emerging countries. Official participation totalled, on average, 400 experts and prominent officials from government, regional and international institutions, the private sector, university research centres and civil society organizations from more than 50 countries (Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America).  

Their proceedings were published and the results of the exchanges and experience sharing on best practices in designing and implementing strategies for emergence were disseminated. The experts’ contributions were also assembled into a collection focusing on two topics, Emerging Africa: Issues and Potentials and Africa’s Structural Transformations and Emergence. A collection of best practices was also produced, addressing (i) sectoral development strategies, (ii) developing national champions, (iii) the attractiveness of FDI and accelerating investments, (iv) innovative public-private partnership pathways, (v) social inclusivity, and (v) territorial inclusivity.

Today, the continent faces the human, economic and social impacts of COVID-19 on Africa’s development. In addition, the lessons and share experiences and the policies implemented both to contain the spread of the virus and relaunch national economies must be analysed. The central theme of ICEA-IV will thus be “Seizing the opportunities of the COVID-19 pandemic to accelerate Africa’s emergence.” The gathering will be held on 16-17 November 2021 or 23-24 November 2021 in Abidjan.  

II.               Issue

• COVID-19: A health crisis with simultaneous human, political, economic and social impacts

According to alarming information from the World Health Organization (WHO) on recent developments in the COVID-19 pandemic, in July 2021, confirmed cases totalled 183.4 million and deaths totalled 3.97 million worldwide, for a mortality rate of 2.17 percent. The world is experiencing a fourth wave of infections, accelerated by several COVID-19 variants. The most recent and aggressive is the Delta variant, which spread from India.

The COVID-19 vaccine response is intensifying, with more stringent measures for populations around the world. By late June 2021, more than 2.9 billion doses of vaccine had been administered to more than 1.1 billion people, with at least one dose of one of the vaccines used. Full vaccination coverage totals at least 539,825,215 people worldwide.

While less alarming in Africa, the pandemic’s spread on the continent remains a serious cause for concern.  The number of confirmed cases totals 5.7 million, with 146,298 deaths, or a mortality rate of 2.58 percent.

The African continent has activated its vaccine strategy, with gradual deployment in 51 out of 54 countries. A total of 67,037,020 vaccine doses were provided, with more than 76 percent of them - 50,300,505 – already administered. The number of individuals fully vaccinated with two doses totals 16,407,575. Overall, Africa’s vaccination rate is the lowest in the world, with only 2 percent of its population having received at least one dose. The Africa countries with the highest vaccination rates are Morocco (15.98 percent), Mauritius (13.22 percent) and Equatorial Guinea (6.24 percent).

This health crisis has had human, political, economic and social impacts. People on every continent have died from COVID-19. The most advanced nations have been the most affected (including the US, Brazil, India and England). These human losses, which thus include workforce losses, are destabilizing production systems and the process of transmitting longstanding savoir-faire.

Political management of the pandemic remains controversial in some countries. Some governments have been criticized for their strategies to combat COVID-19, which have included social distancing measures and restrictions that have been likened to violations of basic rights of freedom and free choice. Popular protests have been held in several countries. Implementation of emergency health measures has led some governments to circumvent democratic processes for adopting regulations, compromising the effective implementation of development plans.

Economic recession has struck every country. Under the combined effect of serious disruptions, which have hit domestic supply and demand and international trade, economic activity declined worldwide in 2020. According to International Monetary Fund estimates (Global Economic Outlook, March 2021), changes in and prospects for growth worldwide and by major regions are as follows:

Regional growth (real GDP; % annual variation)

Source: IMF, March 2021.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the brutal shock of the pandemic, in a context already characterized by fragile productive systems (weak diversification, inadequate or non-existent process by which to achieve the regional integration of national economies into true value chains, and strong external dependency), explains, to a large extent, the significant decline in GDP (on average, from 3.1 percent to -1.9 percent).  

The logical consequences of such a significant contraction in GDP in sub-Saharan Africa include loss of jobs and increased numbers of people living below the poverty line. Per capita income has been affected, falling by 3.6 percent in 2020.

Under these conditions, implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in sub-Saharan Africa – and, specifically, the first goal, which addresses poverty reduction – may prove difficult.  As a result of COVID-19, extreme poverty has risen for the first time in a generation.  According to the 2021 report on achieving the SDGs, between 119 and 124 million additional people were relegated to extreme poverty in 2020. In addition, in 2021, 70 to 161 million additional people worldwide are likely to be hungry because of the pandemic. In 2020, 2.37 billion people lacked food or were unable to obtain a healthy, balanced diet on a regular basis.

• Has the COVID-19 crisis reversed the trajectories of emergence in Africa?

Starting in the 2010s, a number of African countries developed and implemented development and/or emergence plans; their main goal was to create the conditions for sustainable growth over the long term.

With this in mind, achieving the economic and social development objectives is contingent upon (i) a stable macroeconomic framework; (ii) sustained (public and private) investment; (iii) structural transformation of the economy; (iv) openness to the outside world and the competitiveness of the economy; (v) adequate physical infrastructure and human capital; and, (vi) transparent market operations based on strong institutions.

The African countries that are candidates for emergence – such as Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Nigeria, Senegal, le Morocco, Tunisia, South Africa, Kenya and Rwanda - posted remarkable growth between 2012 and 2019 with the implementation of five-year development plans. Investments and reforms generated a momentum that produced average annual growth of 6 percent, as well as an increase in GDP per capita. This reversed the upward trend in the poverty rate in certain countries.

In 2020, the economic recession caused by COVID-19 interrupted that process, challenging whether national economies could remain on a sustained economic growth path over nearly two decades, as the table below shows:

The economic recovery observed in 2021, both worldwide and regionally, will thus be beneficial if it is sustainable, can withstand mutations of the COVIV-19 virus, and occurs within the context of a programme of international solidarity that facilitates access to the vaccine for people everywhere.

To date, this recovery has not been uniform worldwide and is occurring against a backdrop of uncertainty. The African countries face several challenges to reviving their national economies, repositioning themselves on a long-term growth path, and reducing poverty and inequality:

• Strengthening Africa’s governance capacities in the face of crises;

• Rapidly improving and increasing access to vaccines in Africa;

• Developing human capital:
• The pandemic has revealed the urgent need to strengthen health care systems in Africa (financing, organization, skills of those who implement the health policy, responding to users’ needs). More specifically, it has highlighted the continent’s lag in the areas of research and medical production.
• The pandemic has also disrupted the educational and vocational training systems in a region where 60 percent to 70 percent of the population is under 35. Closing schools for long periods has reduced learning time and disrupted learning habits.  Many African governments did, of course, set up distance learning systems to ensure ongoing access to education during primary and secondary school closings. However, this did not apply to technical and vocational training systems, …  .
• Ensuring sustainable financing for the economies;
• Developing a strong private sector that can provide jobs (strengthen job creation opportunities in the private sector);
• Pursuing the structural transformation of the economies; and,
• Reducing food insecurity and other forms of vulnerability.

The COVID-19 epidemic calls on us to meet the challenges but also offers opportunities to accelerate Africa’s emergence:

• Based on the lessons learned, the COVID-19 pandemic offers the African countries, first, the opportunity to set new priorities, in the context of the design and implementation of national emergence plans, linking the search for long-term growth, the development of human capital, and the ability to take advantage of the new information and communications technologies (ICT).
  • Share expertise, at the continental and regional levels, in medical research, innovation and production;
  • Strengthen health systems.
  • Strengthen and redirect educational and vocational training systems; and,
  • Take advantage of the rapid development of digital technology and digitalization (including electronic payments, training, remote work, e-commerce and use in agriculture).

• The health crisis also offers African countries the opportunity to take advantage of market niches captured by existing or future businesses (manufacture of cloth masks and transparent visors by tailors or economic operators who have invested in 3D printers), thus creating many jobs on the continent.

• Last, the pandemic offers the African countries the opportunity to accelerate the development of value chains, in conjunction with implementation of the AfCFTA. The objective is to prepare for and achieve a shift away from international specialization that depends on primary commodities.

In the face of the historic economic and social shock of COVID-19, and in keeping with the challenges to be met and the opportunities to be exploited, ICEA IV will address two key questions:

• How can we absorb the negative consequences of the pandemic and revive and transform Africa’s national economies?

• What new approach to Africa’s emergence can we design based on the lessons learned and the new opportunities (including the redefinition of our priorities, the role of the health system, taking into account our vulnerabilities, development of education and scientific research, pooling Africa’s expertise to resolve shared problems, redirecting and streamlining domestic financing).

 III.          General and specific objectives

The overall objective of ICEA 2021 is to deepen the discussion on implementing Africa’s plans for emergence in light of the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and experiences in Africa and elsewhere in the world.

ICEA-IV will provide an opportunity to (i) draw lessons from the three prior editions of the ICEA and share experiences implementing plans for emergence; (ii) provide current data on the integrated impact of COVID-19 (including human, policy, economic, cultural and social protection) and on trajectories for emergence; and (iii) propose the best policy options both to contain the spread of the virus and revive national economies.

Specifically, it will rely on the recommendations of ICEA I, II and III to resolve the “assessment/COVID-19/emergence” nexus. This will involve:

• providing an update on implementation of the resolutions passed at the 2019 ICEA III, held in Dakar;
• providing updated data to assess the impact of the health crisis on the basics of the plans and trajectories for emergence;
• assessing (i) the results of the anti-COVID economic recovery plans implemented in Africa; (ii) more globally, the response capacity of Africa’s public and private structures (including health systems, general research and medical research, in particular, vaccine and drug production, and cooperation between modern and traditional medical approaches);
• analysing the constraints related to financing plans for emergence in Africa (given the debt situation, how much room is there to manoeuvre?);
• proposing solutions in terms of structural reforms, new conceptual approaches to plans for emergence in Africa, with emphasis on developing long-term analytic and forecasting capacity to address future shocks;
• taking stock of emergence in Africa; and,
• reconsidering the 2015 Abidjan Declaration and the criteria and conditions for emergence by drawing lessons from the pandemic.

  IV.          Expected results

The main expected results at the conclusion of ICEA 2021 are:

• a better understanding of the economic and social impacts of COVID-19 in Africa, as well as the constraints related to implementing plans for emergence (including financing problems);
• identification and discussion of the opportunities that the COVID-19 pandemic presents to accelerate Africa’s emergence;
• based on the lessons learned, sharing experiences and recommendations for tools and methodology for formulating plans for emergence (what are the priorities for consolidating achievements, preparing for the future and ensuring that the transformation of Africa’s productive systems is sustainable?);
• presentation of the implementation status of the ICEA III resolutions and proposal of new perspectives;
• drafting of a new “profile of the emerging African economy;” and,
• description of new perspectives for Africa’s emergence.

V.             Conference themes

The ICEA’s fourth edition will be organized around the central theme, Seizing the Opportunities of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Accelerate Africa’s Emergence.  Discussions will be held around these three sub-themes:

• Lessons learned, opportunities to be seized, Africa’s priorities, and formulating and implementing plans for emergence;
• COVID-19, human capital and emergence, and,
• Forecasting, planning for emergence and resilience.

1. The lessons learned from the COVID-19 crisis on implementing plans for emergence in Africa and the opportunities to be seized to promote the recovery and repositioning of the economies on a path toward long-term growth

The first plenary session should reflect the lessons learned from the crisis on implementing plans for emergence and incorporate. It would also be advisable, going forward, to incorporate the policies needed to ensure that plans for emergence are resilient. This will set the terms of the main theme - COVID-19 and Implementing Plans for Emergence - from the start and connect it to the other sessions.

1. COVID-19, human capital and emergence

This sub-theme could focus on both the health aspects and the consequences of the lessons learned from the pandemic, specifically in terms of medical science research/production in Africa and preparing for future health crises (in the spirit of building back better) AND on the role of education and research in plans for emergence with regard to the lessons learned from the crisis. It could also address jobs and social protection.

1. Forecasting, planning for emergence and resilience

This sub-theme could focus specifically on incorporating uncertainty in planning for emergence by drawing on the experience of certain countries (Singapore) and in plans for emergence to strengthen resilience.

VI.         Format and organization

The ICEA 2021 will be held on 16-17 November 2021 or 23-24 November 2021 in Abidjan. It will be organized jointly by the Government of Côte d’Ivoire and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with the World Bank, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the World Health Organization (WHO), and will follow a hybrid format: international participants will attend via videoconference and approximately 100 participants will be present, face-to-face, in Abidjan.

The Government of Côte d’Ivoire, through its diplomatic network, and UNDP, through its network of Country Offices and Regional Hubs, will facilitate the participation of public administration officials and private sector representatives, experts and academics from the emerging countries and other African countries.

A guidance and steering committee will be set up to handle preparations and the practical organization of the technical and logistical tasks. It will also centralize all of the information required for the work to be carried out properly. A team of international and regional experts will also be created.

    VII.       Schedule

The conference will be organized into a series of high-level panels that convene in plenary session, with presentations on the chosen topics, followed by discussion. It will begin with an opening ceremony featuring speeches by Heads of State, directors of international organizations and Africa’s private sector.

After those speeches, the conference will continue in plenary session with the high-level panel on Africa’s capacity to respond to the COVID-19 health crisis.

The three sub-themes referred to above will each be addressed in a plenary session, followed by parallel sessions to deal with the issues in greater depth, draw lessons and develop recommendations. The parallel sessions will be limited to two per sub-theme.

After the opening speeches, the conference will continue in plenary session, with (i) the high-level panel on the resilience of the African economies and their capacity to respond to the COVID-19 health crisis; (ii) a second panel to discuss the lessons learned, opportunities to be seized, Africa’s priorities and the formulation and implementation of plans for emergence, followed by discussions; (iii) a third panel to discuss measures to ensure the sustainable recovery of Africa’s private sector; (iv) a fourth panel on the outlook for medical science research and production in Africa; and, (v) specific speeches prepared and presented by UNDP, the AfDB, the World Bank and WHO to discuss the issues presented in greater depth and prepare recommendations, followed by discussions.

Two keynote speakers will be invited. Their remarks (preliminary topics) will address:

• What new forms of solidarity de we need to ensure humanity’s future?  (Keynote speaker 1).
• Developing a culture of anticipation to better prepare for tomorrow (Keynote speaker 2).

A closing session will focus on the main recommendations of ICEA 2021 and prospects for ICEA 2023.

To inform the discussions on practices in Africa, several country case studies will be prepared (West Africa:  Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Nigeria; North Africa: Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt; East Africa: Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda; Central Africa: Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Gabon; Southern Africa: South Africa, Mauritius and Madagascar) to analyse developments (changes, disruptions or continuity) in terms of structural transformation, organization and operation of public services and their implications for human development. The constraints encountered in this context will be discussed during group sessions, along with solutions drawn from best international practices.

VIII.      Target audiences

High-level public and private sector decisionmakers (including Heads of State, presidents of international institutions and business leaders), academics, and civil society representatives will gather to discuss the topic.

Given the international context, with the presence of COVID-19, some 100 individuals from high-level delegations will be invited to be present in Abidjan. The use of virtual technologies will be maximized to facilitate the participation of more than 1,000 participants worldwide.

1. Conference materials

Conference materials will include the following (available online at the ICEA site):

• Case studies;
• Case study summary report;
• Panellists’ presentations (including outlines and speeches);
• Experts’ presentations;
• Guidance notes for panels and sessions (plenary and group);
• Participant information notes;
• Proceedings of ICEA I, II and III;
• Collected best practices from ICEA I, II and III.

X.   Tentative programme